Bitcoin's price surge to $126,000 last year has sparked debates among crypto experts, with Plan C offering a unique perspective. Despite the impressive peak, Plan C argues that the Bitcoin top isn't yet in, drawing from the business cycle theory. This theory suggests that BTC's bull market peaks historically occur when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65, and the latest ISM PMI data supports this, falling to 47.9 in December. This indicates that the peak hasn't been reached yet.
Sminston, a BTC analyst, echoes this sentiment, noting that the ISM PMI is still below 50, suggesting the spring is still coiling. The analyst's chart reveals that a parabolic rally awaits once the ISM PMI breaks above 50, potentially pushing Bitcoin prices well above $100,000. This aligns with Plan C's suggestion that the bull market peak might be near the 65 level of the ISM PMI.
However, the current market dynamics present a challenge. Bitcoin struggles to maintain its position above $90,000, and macro data adds to the uncertainty. The latest U.S. jobs data supports the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, which is bearish for the crypto market. To confirm a recovery, BTC needs to rebound above $99,000, according to Glassnode, signaling renewed confidence among market participants.
The on-chain analytics platforms Glassnode and CryptoQuant provide further insights. Glassnode highlights the importance of reclaiming the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100, while CryptoQuant warns that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, a pattern similar to 2021-2022 before the price topped. As of the latest data, Bitcoin trades around $90,500, indicating a downward trend in the past 24 hours.
